Kawakami effective in debut as Braves down Nats

Baseball Betting Lines

04/11/2009 - Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kenshin Kawakami tossed six solid innings in his major league debut, as the Atlanta Braves downed Washington, 5-3, to keep the Nationals winless so far this season.

Kawakami (1-0), the first Japanese-born player in Braves history, allowed three runs on four hits and four walks. The 33-year-old also struck out eight in picking up the win.

Kawakami's effort on the mound was backed by Kelly Johnson, who went 3-for-4 with a double, home run and three runs batted in. Jordan Schafer had three hits, including two doubles, for the Braves, who moved to 4-1 this season and have already won their first two series.

Atlanta took two of three games from Philadelphia to begin the 2009 campaign and have now won the first two of this three-game set against the Nationals.

John Lannan (0-2) took the loss after allowing four runs on nine hits and three walks in six innings of work. Lannan also struck out three in the loss, Washington's fifth in a row to open the year. Washington is one of two teams without a win this season, the other being Cleveland, which lost to Toronto earlier Saturday to also fall to 0-5.

Ryan Zimmerman powered Washington's offense with a two-run homer, his first of the season, also drawing a walk in the loss.

Atlanta won only after erasing the 3-0 lead Washington had built up over the first three innings. The Braves got one run in the home third when Johnson smacked a leadoff homer to right field and added three more in the fourth.

With a runner on first, Schafer doubled to put both runners in scoring position. Kawakami grounded out, but Johnson followed with a two-run double to center, tying the game.

Atlanta's rally continued when Yunel Escobar reached on an infield single, leaving runners on the corners. Chipper Jones then lined a single to left to bring home Johnson, giving the Braves a 4-3 lead.

Kawakami settled down after allowing his three runs and, after his six innings, handed the ball off to Peter Moylan, who struck out the side in the seventh.

Rafael Soriano took over on the mound in the top of the eighth for the Braves and held Washington scoreless, despite allowing a leadoff double to Cristian Guzman.

Escobar's RBI single in the bottom half of the eighth provided an extra run for Atlanta, and Mike Gonzalez tossed a perfect ninth to notch his first save of the season.

The Nationals got on the scoreboard in the first, when Nick Johnson singled in a run. Zimmerman's opposite field two-run shot in the third made it a 3-0 Washington lead.

Game Notes

Kawakami spent last season with the Chunichi Dragons, going 9-5 with a 2.30 earned run average in 20 games (16 starts). However, he missed most of September with a strained back. He won 112 games in 11 seasons in Japan, earned MVP honors, as well as the Sawamura Award -- Japan's equivalent to the Cy Young -- in 2004 after going 17-7 with a 3.32 ERA...Lannan entered the game with a 2-0 record at Turner Field and a 0.69 ERA (one run in 13 innings)...The Braves left 10 runners on base, while the Nats stranded five.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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